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New Yorkers will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd