Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
