Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
